By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY (Reuters) – The yen pared losses on Friday after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) sounded upbeat about growth and signaled it would be cautious about further monetary policy tightening, while the dollar struggled of its own as markets priced in faster U.S. rate cuts.
It’s been a tough week for the yen, with the euro gaining 2.2% to 159.46 as speculators took profits on recent long yen positions.
The euro also strengthened to $1.11635, up 0.9% on the week and within striking distance of the August high of $1.1201. A break of that level would point to a high of $1.1275 in July 2023.
The dollar fell 0.3% to 142.21 yen, well off an overnight high of 143.95, as the BOJ did as widely expected, keeping its overnight interest rate target unchanged at 0.25% by unanimous vote.
The central bank maintained its view that the economy remains on track for a moderate recovery, but said inflation is moderating and within targets, making investors a little less reluctant to sell yen. It also highlighted currency volatility as a factor in its analysis.
BOJ policy statements can sometimes be quite opaque, so investors will focus on any clues from Governor Kazuo Ueda on the timing and pace of tightening at his post-meeting press conference.
Governor Ueda is expected to be “cautious but gradually hawkish,” said Shoki Omori, chief strategist for the Japan desk at Mizuho Securities. “Depending on the degree of this tone, if the hawkish stance is clearly transmitted to the market, the dollar-yen exchange rate is expected to trend lower.”
Consumer price data released on Friday showed core inflation rose to 2.8% in August, while headline inflation hit 3.0%.
Samara Hammoud, a currency strategist at CBA, noted that Japan’s real rate remained deeply negative at around -2.5%, while the BOJ estimated the neutral rate would be in a range of -1% to 0.5%.
“Therefore, there is scope to continue raising the policy rate while maintaining accommodative financial conditions,” he said. “Our baseline assumption remains that the Bank of Japan will raise rates by another 25 basis points in October, although the risk is tilted towards a subsequent increase.”
“Recent turmoil in financial markets and the upcoming Liberal Democratic Party elections may make the BOJ more cautious about raising rates.”
FALL OF THE DOLLAR
Much of the rest of the world is going in the opposite direction, although the expected rate cut by China’s central bank has proved elusive. China unexpectedly left benchmark interest rates unchanged at Friday’s monthly rate setting.
China has been hinting at further stimulus measures, made possible in part by aggressive easing by the US Federal Reserve that pushed the dollar to a 16-month low against the yuan.
Major state-owned banks were seen buying dollars in the onshore spot foreign exchange market on Friday to prevent the yuan from appreciating too quickly, two people familiar with the matter said.
Markets are pricing in a 40% chance that the Fed will cut another 50 basis points (bps) in November, with a 73 bps cut expected by year-end. Rates are forecast to be at 2.85% by the end of 2025, which is now considered to be the Fed’s neutral estimate.
That dovish outlook has bolstered hopes for continued U.S. economic growth and sparked a sharp rally in risk assets. Currencies leveraged to global growth and commodity prices also benefited, with the dollar rising above $0.6800.
The index remained stuck at 100.59 and just above a one-year low.
Sterling was another gainer after the Bank of England kept rates unchanged on Thursday, with its governor saying it needed to be “careful not to cut rates too quickly or too much.”
The pound is up 1.2% on the week so far at $1.3290, having hit its highest level since March 2022.