By David Ljunggren
OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s ruling Liberals, trailing far behind in the polls, face a fight on Monday to retain a previously assured seat in a special election where failure to win could increase calls for a new party leader.
The election in the Montreal parliamentary district of LaSalle—Emard—Verdun was called to replace a Liberal legislator who resigned.
Normally, Trudeau’s party could count on an easy win in that contest, but polls suggest the race is close. If the Liberals lose, the spotlight will fall squarely on Trudeau, who has become increasingly unpopular after nearly nine years in office.
Unusually, some Liberal lawmakers are breaking ranks to call for changes from the top. Alexandra Mendes, a Liberal lawmaker who represents a Quebec constituency, said many of her constituents wanted Trudeau gone.
“I didn’t hear it from two or three people, I heard it from dozens and dozens of people,” he told public broadcaster Radio-Canada last week. “He’s not the right leader anymore.”
Trudeau, who insists he will lead the party into an election due by the end of October 2025, suggested on Monday that voters would be drawn to the ballot by anger over high prices and the housing crisis.
“Canadians are facing difficulties right now because of the high cost of living. They are very frustrated,” he said last Wednesday when asked about the vote and his future.
Questions about Trudeau’s future intensified in June after the party lost a safe seat in Toronto in a special election.
Polls indicate the Liberals will lose badly to Pierre Poilievre’s centre-right Conservatives in the next federal election. A Leger poll last week put the Conservatives at 45 per cent public support, a level of broad support rarely seen in Canada, while the Liberals are in second place at 25 per cent.
In the 2021 general election, the Liberals won LaSalle-Emard-Verdun with 43% of the vote, well ahead of the separatist Bloc Quebecois with 22% and the New Democratic Party with 19%. Polls show the three parties are tied in the constituency.
Voting ends at 9 p.m. (0100 GMT). Normally, the first results would be ready within 90 minutes, but about 80 activists, outraged that Trudeau broke his 2015 promise to change Canada’s voting system, are also on the ballot. That means the vote count will likely take several hours longer than usual.
Trudeau’s popularity has fallen as voters grapple with a rising cost of living and a housing crisis that has been driven in part by a surge in arrivals of temporary residents such as students and foreign workers.
Poilievre is promising to scrap a federal carbon tax that he says makes life unaffordable and last week pledged to limit immigration limits until more housing can be built. Liberals admit the polls look bleak but say they will step up efforts to portray Poilievre as a supporter of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again movement as the election approaches.
Poilievre, a caustic career politician who often insults his opponents, also says he would defund the CBC, Canada’s public broadcaster. In April he was expelled from the House of Commons after calling Trudeau “a lunatic.”