-Slavic-
As the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to subside and the US lifts the public health emergency in May, vaccine manufacturers will face a sharp drop in sales of their COVID vaccines.
that is the evaluation from analytics firm GlobalData, which estimates COVID vaccine sales will decline by $10 billion between 2021 and 2028.
The market for COVID vaccines is currently dominated by Pfizer (New York Stock Exchange: PFE)/BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) and Modern (NASDAQ:MRNA), which produce mRNA shots.
In 2022, Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) injection, Comirnaty, accounted for 58% of total COVID vaccine sales. Moderna’s Spikevax (MRNA) had a 30% stake, which is expected to decline to 16% by 2028.
A new GlobalData report found that between the first and second half of 2022, analysts cut their expected sales through 2028 by an average of 7%.
The largest decline is expected in 2025, when a ~14% drop is expected. After that, the decrease will be less.
Quentin Horgan, associate director of GlobalData, noted that the decline will affect some drugmakers more than others. He said sales of AstraZeneca’s (AZN) Vaxzevria are projected to decline an average of 47% between 2022 and 2028 based on analysts’ opinion. Between the first and second half of 2022, analysts reduced the expected sales of Moderna’s Spikevax (MRNA) in 2022 by 23% on average.
The report comes as the COVID public health emergency will end on May 11. This could further hamper sales of COVID vaccines, as vaccines will no longer be free for all Americans, regardless of insurance status. Although the price per shot is expected to increase, which has drawn criticism, there are signs that the uptake of more boost shots may be more limited than in the past.
Pfizer (PFE) has already been forecasting a significant decline in Comirnaty’s sales to 2023. In its fourth-quarter 2022 financial results released at the end of January, the pharmaceutical giant expects Comirnaty’s revenue to decline 64% from 2022 to ~$13.5 billion.
In its recent fourth-quarter earnings, Moderna (MRNA) said it would take a charge of $333 million for inventory write-downs related to COVID-19 products that will likely have to be scrapped.
The GlobalData report also noted that vaccine sales will be undermined by additional COVID therapies in development, many of which can be administered orally, a much more convenient option.
The firm’s drug database indicates that there are 148 treatments for COVID in an advanced stage of development: 136 in phase 3 and 12 in pre-registration.