C.R.
Eli LillyNew York Stock Exchange:LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO), which already have blockbuster hits with their weight-loss drugs Zepbound (tirzepatide) and Wegovy (tirzepatide), will likely dominate the market even if other drugs are approved, according to two Street analysts.
Holly Morris, manager director of JP Morgan Asset Management focused on health care, believes that because of its size and its treatments to reach the market as soon as possible, the two companies are prepared to control it.
During a panel discussion on GLP-1 drugs at the Seeking Alpha Investment Summit in New York on June 18, Morris noted that the surgical robotics sector has essentially been a monopoly despite new entrants.
“Lilly and Novo have a tremendous amount of intellectual know-how and have invested decades of research and development into this ‘class of drugs.'” “They have a huge moat around the supply chain and have both spent billions on increasing supply. .. I think it will be very difficult for any company to surpass Lilly or Novo.”
Louise Chen, who focuses on large-cap pharmaceutical stocks as CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, added that for new entrants to make a mark in the space, they will have to show differentiation. This could include medications that are taken orally, dosed less frequently, preserve muscle mass, or are combination products.
But he admitted that smaller companies will struggle to market themselves as independent entities. “I think they’re going to have to be acquired” if they want to be successful, she added.
Chen’s projections for GLP-1 drugs, which also include Lilly’s Mounjaro and Novo’s Ozempic, are $45 billion this year and $65 billion in 2025, although the latter could be higher if supply issues improve. . In five years, he believes LPG-1 will be a $100 billion market.
Both Lilly (LLY) and Novo (NVO) have other weight loss drugs in the works. The first has orforglipron, an oral GLP-1, and retaturide, a triple agonist of GLP-1, GIP and GCGR, both in phase 3. The second has CagriSema, a combination of cagrilintide, a dual agonist of amylin receptors and calcitonin, and semaglutide, in phase 3, and monlunabant, a CB1 receptor blocker, in phase 2.
Other drug candidates in mid-stage development for obesity include Viking Therapeutics’ (VKTX) VK2735, Structure Therapeutics’ (GPCR) GSBR-1290, Altimmune’s (ALT) pemvidutide, Zealand Pharma’s (OTCPK:ZLDPF) petrelintide. , Pfizer’s petrelintide (New York Stock Exchange:PFE) danuglipron and Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) AMG133, also known as MariTide.
Roche (OTCQX:RHHBY) also has two early-stage candidates in the pipeline, CT-996 and CT-388, through its acquisition of Carmot Therapeutics.
Morris believes that a therapy with better weight loss reduction will not necessarily dethrone another that has significant market share. “I’m still trying to figure out the currency that this market will win. We’re hitting these levels of weight loss that are very dramatic, like 25%+, and not everyone needs that.”
“I think what we’ll see is this market will really segment itself,” he added. “This one won’t necessarily have the best efficacy, so it will take over and cannibalize” other medications.