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PJM Interconnection, the largest power grid operator in the US, faces a severe shortfall in power generation capacity for years to come, as retirements of traditional generators outpace additions, according to a new analysis published this week. week.
He The grid operator forecasts that nearly 40 GW of its generating capacity will be retired by 2030, representing 21% of total service area capacity, with planned retirements of 90% in coal and natural gas.
Meanwhile, PJM expects no more than 30GW of additions over the same period and as little as 15GW in its “low entry” scenario.
PJM serves more than 65 million consumers between northern Illinois and the Atlantic coast, including all of Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Jersey.
Other grid operators, including neighboring Midcontinent Independent System Operator, are facing the same potential capacity shortfalls as utilities phase out more fossil fuel generation.
Regulators at the North American Electric Reliability Corporation have also warned against removing traditional generation sources too quickly or else risk significant shortages, which could lead to more frequent blackouts in conditions extreme weather.
Utilities are under increasing pressure from the Biden administration and some investors to phase out fossil fuels, with the goal of achieving 100% carbon-free electricity by 2035.
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The US Energy Information Administration recently forecast that solar power will comprise more than half of the new utility-scale electric generation capacity added to the US grid by 2023.