(Bloomberg Opinion) — There will be plenty of new data for the oil market to digest when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency release their monthly market reports later this week, a few days after the Administration The US Energy Information Agency publishes its short-term energy outlook. Meanwhile, gold traders will watch as the precious metal targets its August 2020 high of $2,075.47 an ounce. Here are five notable charts to watch in global commodities.
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Gold
Spot gold has been on the rise, breaking above $2,000 an ounce, as weaker-than-estimated economic data revived concerns that the US is heading towards a recession amid the aggressive tightening stance of the Federal Reserve. While bullion, the safe haven of choice in uncertain times, is less than $70 from its all-time high set in August 2020, it is also nearing two technical extremes: the upper band of its trading envelope (a measure built around moving price averages) and the 70 level on its 14-day Relative Strength Index. Violations of both can often signal to some traders that a reversal is coming.
Oil
Oil prices are benefiting from renewed concerns about a tightening market, especially after OPEC+’s surprise decision to cut more than 1 million barrels of daily production starting in May. Reports this week from OPEC, IEA and EIA will shed more light on the supply picture, with further inventory drawdowns likely to support price gains. Combined with a backdrop of global economic uncertainty and questions about the path of the Fed’s interest rate hikes, short-term volatility can also be expected.
Mining
The clock is ticking for Glencore Plc to convince Teck Resources Ltd. investors to reject the company’s plans to split its coal and metals operations in an April 26 vote, keeping the $23 billion takeover bid alive. from the Swiss mining company. Glencore would still need to win over Teck’s management and shareholders to land the second-biggest mining acquisition in Canada, where some of the world’s biggest deals have been developed in the past two decades. Many top-tier Canadian metal producers have disappeared over the years thanks to domestic and foreign acquisitions, leaving the country with few remaining mining champions on the world stage.
emissions
The Biden administration is expected this week to propose the toughest restrictions on pollution from new cars and light trucks, stopping short of requiring zero-emission electric vehicles or banning the sale of conventional gasoline-powered models. The standards, to be published Wednesday by the US Environmental Protection Agency, are likely to govern tailpipe emissions from model years 2027-2032 vehicles, according to people briefed on elements of the plan. . While EV adoption is forecast to expand, BloombergNEF data shows that growth could be constrained in the near term by upcoming requirements governing what consumers can claim from the EV Reduction Act tax credits. Inflation up to $7,500 per vehicle.
LNG
The world’s biggest liquefied natural gas buyers in northeast Asia and Europe have shown less interest in buying spot fuel cargoes of late, as a milder winter has left excess reserves available. That is leaving emerging nations with a variety of shipments of supercooled gas to meet demand for electricity generation. Combined imports from India, Thailand and Latin America rose to 3.76 million tonnes last month, the highest level since August. Increased flows can bring relief to citizens and stimulate economic growth. These nations reined in purchases when LNG prices spiked last year, leading in some cases to blackouts and power rationing.
–With assistance from Doug Alexander, Jennifer A. Dlouhy, Ann Koh, and Corey Cantor.
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