By David Ljunggren
OTTAWA (Reuters) – The leader of a Canadian political party that has kept Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in power says he will vote in favor of a vote of no confidence, effectively ensuring that the Liberals will be removed from power early next year.
Trudeau has been under increasing pressure to resign since Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned over a policy clash.
Below are some possible ways forward for Canada:
WHAT HAPPENS IF TRUDEAU RESIGNS?
If Trudeau resigns, the Liberals will name an interim leader to take over as prime minister while the party holds a special leadership convention. The challenge for the party is that these conventions typically take months to organize and if an election is held before then, the Liberals would be in the hands of a prime minister not elected by members. This has never happened in Canada. The Liberals could try to hold a shorter convention than usual, but this could lead to protests from candidates who felt this put them at a disadvantage.
There is no way Freeland can quickly be appointed prime minister on a permanent basis, as tradition dictates that the interim leader does not run as a candidate to lead the party.
CAN YOUR LIBERAL PARTY EXPELL TRUDEAU?
Unlike Britain, where party leaders are elected by the parliamentary group and can be quickly removed, the Liberal leader is elected by a special convention of members. Therefore, there is no formal party mechanism to remove Trudeau if he wants to stay.
That said, if members of his own cabinet and a large number of lawmakers call for him to leave, he may conclude that his position is untenable.
CAN PARLIAMENT EXPELL TRUDEAU?
Canadian governments must demonstrate that they have the confidence of the elected chamber of the House of Commons. Votes on budgets and other spending are considered measures of confidence, and if a government loses one, it falls. In virtually all cases, the election campaign begins immediately.
The House of Commons closed on Tuesday for the winter break and will not return until January 27. The government can use procedural maneuvers to avoid being brought down by a spending measure, but it should allocate a few days each session to opposition parties when they can. disclose motions on any matter, including confidence censure.
Assuming the government allocates days to the opposition at the end of the session, the most likely time for Trudeau to fall would be in the last 10 days of March. This would trigger elections sometime in May.
IS THERE ANY OTHER WAY TRUDEAU COULD BE EXPELLED?
Ultimate constitutional power in Canada rests with Governor General Mary Simon, who is the personal representative of King Charles, the head of state. In theory, he can impeach Trudeau, but in real life this would not happen. “The governor general will not remove a prime minister who still enjoys the confidence of the Commons,” said Philippe Lagasse, a professor and constitutional expert at Ottawa’s Carleton University.
WHAT ELSE COULD TRUDEAU DO TO AVOID BEING FIRED?
Trudeau could prorogue parliament, which would formally end the current session and give him some breathing room. In this scenario, the return of the House would be delayed by several weeks, allowing the government to reveal a new plan for how it plans to govern the country. This would have the advantage of delaying any no-confidence vote, but could further anger Liberal lawmakers, especially if Trudeau were still prime minister.