By Hyunsu Yim
SEOUL (Reuters) – A prolonged period of uncertainty over the fate of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and a failed attempt to arrest him are giving oxygen to his supporters and reviving support for his troubled party.
Yoon, suspended from duty following his brief imposition of martial law on Dec. 3 and under criminal investigation for possible insurrection, has been holed up in his hilltop residence in Seoul for weeks, guarded by a small army of security personnel. staff.
In a National Barometer poll released Thursday, 59% of respondents wanted him arrested, something investigators are determined to do even though they failed last week after a widely televised six-hour standoff with his security forces. security. About 37% said arresting Yoon was excessive.
A similar split fell in favor of the Constitutional Court, which is currently considering lawmakers’ decision to impeach Yoon and permanently remove him from office.
Analysts say the prospects for Yoon’s return to office are unclear, but the pause has emboldened his supporters, many of whom braved subzero temperatures to gather near his residence Thursday morning.
The weeks since Yoon’s impeachment have also seen a recovery in support for his ruling People Power Party (PPP), which some analysts say shows signs that conservatives are uniting to fight a possible presidential election later. of this year.
YOON SUPPORTERS REINVIGORATED BY ARREST ATTEMPTS
“It seems that the attempt to arrest Yoon has reinvigorated conservatives,” said Mason Richey, a professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul.
He said the resurgence comes from both Yoon’s staunch supporters, who support his reasons for declaring martial law, including unsubstantiated accusations of election fraud, and those who are less supportive of Yoon but are concerned about Lee Jae-myung’s prospects. , the liberal leader of the main opposition party, becoming president.
“If the arrest effort had been successful, these conservatives would have been defeated a second time, after impeachment, and that revitalization would likely have fizzled out quickly. The more arrest attempts fail, the stronger and more revitalized conservatives will feel.” Richey said. .
A Realmeter poll released Monday put the PPP’s approval rating at 34.4%, an increase for three consecutive weeks. The main opposition party, the Democratic Party, which has a parliamentary majority and prompted Yoon’s impeachment vote, won 45.2%.
Most pollsters in South Korea have stopped tracking Yoon’s approval ratings since he was ousted by parliament, although some fringe polls have shown a rise in his personal support in recent days.
Faced with the prospect of another attempted arrest, his lawyers have remained defiant, arguing that the anti-corruption agents seeking his arrest have no authority to investigate him for insurrection, even though a court has issued a warrant.
YOON’S LAWYERS SAY HE WILL ACCEPT CONSTITUTIONAL COURT RULING
Lawyers, however, told reporters Thursday that the Constitutional Court’s decision on Yoon’s political future will be accepted. The rulings of the court, one of the two highest courts in the country along with the Supreme Court, cannot be appealed.
“The president is still strong. He said he doesn’t want people to suffer and public officials to suffer because of this, but he cannot accept illegal investigations,” lawyer Seok Dong-hyeon, Yoon’s confidant, told supporters outside his residence. . On Wednesday.
Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst covering Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group, a U.S.-based political risk consultancy, said further attempts to arrest Yoon would likely only “galvanize” his and his party’s support.
Yoon’s supporters are also taking inspiration from US President-elect Donald Trump, who previously made baseless allegations of voter fraud and faced a litany of legal problems, but made a surprising comeback in last year’s election.
Some of Yoon’s supporters have adopted the “Stop the Steal” slogan popularized by Trump defenders to intensify allegations of fraud against the election watchdog. Trump has not commented directly on Yoon’s situation.
Lee Jun-han, a political science professor at Incheon National University, said conservative voters were likely motivated by memories of the conservatives’ tough election defeat after President Park Geun-hye’s ouster in 2017.