By Ellen Zhang, Joe Cash and Ethan Wang
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s exports accelerated in December while imports recovered, ending the year on a positive note as the world’s second-largest economy braces for rising trade risks under the incoming U.S. administration. .
US President-elect Donald Trump, who will return to the White House next week, proposed heavy tariffs on Chinese goods, raising fears of a new trade war between the two superpowers.
Adding to the challenges, unresolved disputes with the European Union over tariffs of up to 45.3% on Chinese electric vehicles threaten to hamper China’s ambitions to expand its auto exports.
“The anticipated trade concentration became more visible in December as a result of both the effects of the Chinese New Year and the inauguration of Donald Trump,” said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. The festival will be held from the 28th from January to February 4 of this year.
“Import growth could be supported by the stockpiling of raw materials such as iron ore, as part of (China’s) ‘buy cheap’ strategy,” he added.
Outbound shipments in December rose 10.7% year-on-year, customs data showed on Monday, beating the 7.3% growth forecast in a Reuters poll of economists and improving on the 6.7% rise. November.
Imports surprised on the upside with 1.0% growth, the strongest performance since July 2024. Economists expected a 1.5% drop.
China’s trade surplus grew to $104.8 billion last month, up from $97.4 billion in November.
A Chinese customs spokesman told reporters there was still “huge” room for imports into the $18 trillion economy to grow this year.
Boosting exports has been a critical driver for China’s economy, which remains weighed down by a prolonged housing market slump and fragile consumer confidence.
However, there have been signs of stabilization following China’s stimulus push in recent months.
Factory activity maintained modest expansion for the third consecutive month, while services and construction recovered in December, an official survey showed.
South Korea, a key indicator of China’s imports, reported an 8.6% increase in shipments to China in December, suggesting resilience in demand for technology products.
China’s iron ore imports in 2024 rose for the second year in a row to hit a new high, as lower prices spurred buying and demand remained resilient even as the country’s prolonged housing crisis continued to weigh on the economy. steel demand.
The world’s largest agricultural importer also bought a record amount of soybeans last year, after buyers concerned about trade tensions between the United States and China rushed to obtain American soybeans before the inauguration of the incoming US president. Donald Trump.
But imports fell last year, data showed, marking their first annual decline in the past two decades outside of COVID-19 pandemic-induced declines, as tepid economic growth and peak fuel consumption curbed imports. shopping.
China’s top leaders have pledged to ease monetary policy and adopt a more proactive fiscal policy in 2025, aiming to offset external pressures and revitalize domestic demand.
The government is targeting economic growth of around 5% for the year, a goal that had at times proven elusive in 2024.