(Bloomberg) — Japanese stocks plunged after Shigeru Ishiba’s surprise victory over Sanae Takaichi in the ruling party leadership race caught off guard investors who had been betting on a push for more monetary stimulus from his rival.
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The Nikkei 225 stock average fell as much as 4.7% in early trading after Ishiba’s selection forced investors to trim positions that had been built on speculation that Takaichi would become Japan’s new prime minister and would encourage the Bank of Japan to keep interest rates low. The yen fell 0.3% to 142.68 per dollar after rising about 1.8% on Friday, while 10-year bond futures for December delivery fell 0.70 to 144.52.
The Nikkei underperformed the Topix by more than a percentage point, a sign that the sell-off was driven by short-term speculators, who prefer to trade the Nikkei due to its high liquidity and volatility.
“Today’s drop is no surprise, given how much the market had rallied in recent sessions on hopes that Takaichi would win,” said Kohei Onishi, senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. “This will be “A temporary move. Investors have been buying Japanese stocks on hopes of inflation, wage increases and market reforms, not BOJ easing. The market will return to focusing on fundamentals.”
Ishiba has generally remained supportive of the central bank continuing its path away from ultra-low rates, in contrast to Takaichi, who called further rate hikes “stupid” for now.
Kyodo News reported that Katsunobu Kato will become the next finance minister, a move seen as easing concerns that Ishiba could radically scale back some of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s reflationary policies. Kato has been a supporter of Abenomics.
Ishiba has called for more clarity on the BOJ’s plans to normalize the policy and has emphasized further development of regional economies to address depopulation in rural areas, helped by government spending.
“He didn’t talk much about monetary policy or tax increases when he appeared on some TV shows over the weekend,” said Yugo Tsuboi, chief strategist at Daiwa Securities. “He is probably refraining from talking about policies that would make markets nervous ahead of a likely election.”
Ishiba could call a general election on October 27, public broadcaster NHK said.
Exporters were the biggest drag on the Topix, as the strong yen hurt earnings prospects. Banks, which sank last week on speculation that Takaichi would win, rose.
Bets on BOJ hikes resume after Ishiba’s LDP victory, analysts say
When Prime Minister Fumio Kishida took office in 2021, his proposals to increase capital gains taxes caused a drop in the Nikkei 225 that was dubbed the “Kishida shock.” He quickly backed away from the plan, providing relief to the market. Helped by a weaker yen, optimism about corporate governance reforms and support from Warren Buffett, the gauge rose to a record early this year.
But Japanese stocks became the epicenter of a global slide in August after the BOJ’s rate hike sparked a jump in the yen. While stocks have pared some of their losses since then, the market remains vulnerable to changes in yen movements. Ishiba has also advocated supporting Japan’s rural economy.
“Domestically-oriented stocks will be preferred, especially those benefiting from regional revitalization measures,” said Hirofumi Kasai, senior strategist at Tokio Marine Asset Management Co. “The general direction outside the deflationary period will not change.”
Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co. recommends that investors focus on domestic demand-oriented stocks until concerns about rising corporate tax burdens dissipate. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. warns that volatility will likely persist in the near term until Ishiba clarifies its stance “on areas of concern to investors, such as corporate governance reform and tax rates on income from financial assets.”
Japan’s parliament is expected to confirm Ishiba, 67, as prime minister in a vote scheduled for Oct. 1. Investors’ attention will then likely focus on general election timing, economic data and the US election.
–With the help of Aya Wagatsuma and Winnie Hsu.
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