By Gabriel Stargardter
PARIS (Reuters) – France voted on Sunday in a second round of parliamentary elections that will reshape the political landscape, with opinion polls predicting the far-right National Rally (RN) party will win the most votes but probably fall short of a majority.
Such a result could plunge the country into a chaotic, hung parliament weeks before the Paris Olympics, seriously undermining President Emmanuel Macron’s authority. Similarly, if the nationalist and Eurosceptic RN were to win a majority, the pro-business and pro-European president could be forced into a difficult “cohabitation”.
Marine Le Pen’s RN party made historic gains by winning the first round of last Sunday’s election, raising the spectre of France’s first far-right government since World War II.
But after centrist and leftist parties joined forces over the past week in an attempt to forge a barricade against RN, Le Pen’s hopes of RN winning an outright majority in the 577-seat National Assembly have diminished.
Polls suggest RN will emerge as the dominant legislative force but will fall short of the 289-seat majority that Le Pen and her 28-year-old protégé Jordan Bardella believe would allow them to claim the prime minister’s job and pull France sharply to the right.
Polls opened at 8:00 a.m. (06:00 GMT) and will close at 6:00 p.m. in towns and smaller cities and 8:00 p.m. (18:00 GMT) in larger cities. Initial projections are expected after voting ends, based on partial counts from a sample of polling stations.
Much will depend on whether voters follow the calls of the main anti-RN alliances to prevent the far right from coming to power, or support far-right contenders.
Raphael Glucksmann, a member of the European Parliament who led France’s leftist ticket in last month’s European elections, said he viewed Sunday’s runoff as a simple referendum on whether “the Le Pen family takes control of this country.”
“France is on the edge of the cliff and we don’t know if we’re going to jump,” he told France Inter radio last week.
The RN, long a pariah for many because of its history of racism and anti-Semitism, has seen its support surge thanks to voter anger at Macron, limited family budgets and concerns about immigration.
“The French have a real desire for change,” Le Pen told TF1 television on Wednesday, adding that she was “very confident” of securing a parliamentary majority.
Even if the RN falls short, it looks set to more than double the 89 seats it won in the 2022 legislative elections and become the dominant player in an unruly, hung parliament that will make France difficult to govern.
Such an outcome could trigger political paralysis until Macron’s presidency ends in 2027, when Le Pen is expected to launch her fourth bid for France’s top office.
WHAT’S NEXT FOR MACRON?
Macron stunned the country and angered many of his political allies and supporters when he called a snap election after the RN’s humiliation in last month’s European parliamentary vote, hoping to surprise his rivals in a legislative election.
Whatever the final outcome, his political agenda now appears dead, three years before the end of his presidency.
Bardella says the RN would refuse to form a government if it does not win a majority, although Le Pen has said she might try to do so if it fails.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who looks set to lose his post in the post-election shake-up, has rejected suggestions that Macron’s centrists might try to form a multiparty government if parliament fails to have a majority. Instead, he would like moderates to pass laws on a case-by-case basis.
An RN majority would force Macron into an uneasy “cohabitation” with Bardella as prime minister, with thorny constitutional disputes and questions in Europe and on the world stage about who really speaks for France.
If the RN is deprived of a majority and refuses to form a government, modern France would find itself in uncharted territory. Coalition formation would be difficult for either bloc, given the political differences between them.
French asset prices have risen on expectations that the RN will fail to win a majority, with bank stocks rising and the risk premium investors demand to hold French debt falling. Economists are questioning whether the RN’s bloated spending plans are fully funded.
An RN-led government would raise major questions about where the European Union is headed, given France’s powerful role in the bloc, although EU laws would almost certainly restrict its plans to crack down on immigration.
For many in France’s immigrant and minority communities, the rise of the RN has already sent a clear and unwelcome message.
“They hate Muslims, they hate Islam,” said Selma Bouziane, a 20-year-old film student, at a market in Goussainville, a town near Paris. “They see Islam as a scapegoat for all of France’s problems. So it’s inevitable that it’s negative for the Muslim community.”
The RN has promised to reduce immigration, relax laws to expel illegal immigrants and tighten rules around family reunification. Le Pen says she is not anti-Islamic, but that immigration is out of control and that too many people are taking advantage of France’s welfare system and poor public services.