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With the 2024 US presidential election heating up next week with the first debate, Goldman Sachs’ portfolio strategy research team took a look at the US companies that have the most exposure to domestic and international sales.
Current Predictions point to a Republican victory, which would likely mean the return of former President Donald Trump. Goldman Sachs believes that any legislative changes would likely affect the US dollar, which in turn could influence company performance.
“The first presidential debate of 2024 will take place next Thursday, June 27. Prediction markets assign a 42% probability to a Republican sweep. The political results of the election will likely affect the dollar and the relative performance of stocks with domestic sales versus foreign sales,” Goldman Sachs analyst David Kostin said in a research note on Friday.
“We analyze geographic sales data at the company level…The 22% weight of Semis in our International Sales basket (GSTHINTL) has contributed to the 5 percentage point outperformance year to date relative to our Sales basket Domestic (GSTHAINT). Geopolitical tension and tariffs are potential obstacles to our International Sales basket, which underperformed after the 2016 elections and during the 2018 trade war,” Kostin added.
Goldman said the GSTHINTL and GSTHAINT baskets were each comprised of 50 S&P 500 (SP500) stocks with the largest revenue exposure to non-U.S. sales and U.S. sales, respectively.
“The median GSTHAINT stock gets 0% of its revenue from overseas versus 70% for the median GSTHINTL stock. International sales account for 28% of the median S&P 500 company’s revenue,” Goldman’s Kostin said.
See below for a breakdown of the components of Goldman’s (GSTHAINT) insider sales basket as of June 20:
Communication services
- Verizon (VZ): annual sales: $134 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- T-Mobile US (TMUS): Annual sales: $79 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- Charter Communications (CHTR): annual sales: $55 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- Fox (FOX)(FOXA): annual sales: $15 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- AT&T (T): annual sales: $122 billion; sales outside the US: 4%.
Consumer Discretionary
- Lowe’s Companies (LOW): Annual sales: $86 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- DR Horton (DHI): annual sales: $35 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- Lennar (LEN): annual sales: $34 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- CarMax (KMX): annual sales: $27 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- Ross Stores (ROST): annual sales: $20 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
Consumer staples
- Kroger (KR): annual sales: $150 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- Target (TGT): Annual sales: 107 billion US dollars; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- Dollar General (DG): annual sales: $39 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
Energy
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC): annual sales: $148 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- ONEOK (OKE): annual sales: 18 billion dollars; Sales outside the US: 0%.
Finance
- Wells Fargo (WFC): annual sales: $83 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- Allstate (ALL): annual sales: $57 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- Capital One Financial (COF): annual sales: $37 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- PNC Financial Services (PNC): annual sales: $32 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- Charles Schwab (SCHW): annual sales: $26 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- Truist Financial (TFC): annual sales: $23 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
Health care
- CVS Health (CVS): annual sales: $358 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- Elevance Health (ELV): annual sales: $171 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- Centene (CNC): annual sales: $154 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- Humana (HUM): annual sales: $106 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- Molina Healthcare (MOH): annual sales: $34 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- Quest Diagnostics (DGX): Annual sales: $9 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
Industrial actions
- Southwest Airlines (LUV): annual sales: $26 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- Union Pacific (UNP): annual sales: $24 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- Builders FirstSource (BLDR): Annual sales: $17 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- Republic Services (RSG): annual sales: $15 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
Information technology
- Tyler Technologies (TYL): annual sales: $2 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
- First Solar (FSLR): annual sales: $3 billion; sales outside the US: 4%.
- Intuit (INTU): annual sales: $14 billion; sales outside the US: 8%.
- CDW (CDW): annual sales: $21 billion; sales outside the US: 12%.
- Roper Technologies (ROP): annual sales: $6 billion; sales outside the US: 14%.
- Arista Networks (ANET): annual sales: $6 billion; sales outside the US: 23%.
- Skyworks Solutions (SWKS): annual sales: $5 billion; sales outside the US: 24%.
- Cognizant (CTSH): annual sales: $19 billion; sales outside the US: 26%.
- Fair Isaac (FICO): annual sales: $2 billion; sales outside the US: 27%.
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI): annual sales: 7 billion dollars; sales outside the US: 32%.
- VeriSign (VRSN): annual sales: $1 billion; sales outside the US: 33%.
- Gartner (IT): annual sales: $6 billion; sales outside the US: 34%.
- Motorola Solutions (MSI): annual sales: $10 billion; sales outside the US: 34%.
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW): annual sales: $7 billion; sales outside the US: 36%.
- Enphase Energy (ENPH): annual sales: $2 billion; sales outside the US: 36%.
- Gen Digital (GEN): annual sales: $3 billion; sales outside the US: 37%.
Materials
- Nucor (NUE): annual sales: $35 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
Real estate
- Crown Castle (CCI): annual sales: $7 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.
Utilities
- Duke Energy (DUK): annual sales: $29 billion; Sales outside the US: 0%.